Odds on championship: 300-1. Odds on relegation: 16-1

Manager: Kevin Keegan (since January). Odds on first out the job: 4-1

Last season: 12th, 43 points; FA Cup fourth round; Carling Cup third round

Ins: Danny Guthrie (Liverpool, undisclosed), Jonas Gutierrez (Real Mallorca, undisclosed).

Outs: David Rozehnal (Lazio, £2.9m), Emre (Fenerbahce, undisclosed), Peter Ramage (QPR, free).

The biggest mistake with Newcastle fans is to assume that the handful who gurn for the cameras on the sports news - who seem to spend their lives outside St Jamies' Park, to judge by the pictures - are the only kind of supporters the club have. Newcastle may be mad, but not all their fans are, by a long chalk.

The image of Newcastle as a club was transformed in the first Keegan era. KK took the club from the brink of Division Three to the brink of the title in four years. No one can seriously deny that this was an achievement worth getting excited about.

The biggest Newcastle cheerleaders are not those in the stands, but those in the media who were along for the ride. Keegan is an amazingly charismatic figure in person, by all accounts, too; their fervour may be irritating to outsiders, but we have not been subject to that spell.

The euphoria that greeted Keegan's return was made the greater by the God-awful experiment with Sam Allardyce that preceded it. Yet despite Keegan's second coming, despite the joy that greeted Mike Ashley's earlier arrival after the Fletcher-Shepherd years, there is a lot to be downbeat about at St James'.

Keegan's words about the impossibility of breaking into the top four sounded odd coming from such an optimist, but were as effective a douser of hype as the earlier struggles to secure his first win.

Joey Barton's stupidity continues to leave the club in a dilemma and a source of unwanted headlines. The weird structure and geography, with Dennis Wise based in London, is a source of disquiet. Ashley's brand of populism is wearing thin and Last season's chairman, Chris Mort, is gone.

The personnel are little changed and there are not enough of them. They kick off away to opponents that the old Newcastle famously hit five against in Keegan's first spell, but Manchester United humiliated his second side last season. So, too, did Arsenal, who are the hosts for Newcastle's last game of August.

In between is an eminently winnable match at home to Bolton, though. Hull and Blackburn are visitors in September, games separated by a trip to West Ham.

Newcastle have goals in them, as you would expect from a Keegan side - it was once he had the courage of his attacking convictions that the climb to safety began. KK has a reputation as psychologically weak after his serial resignations and outbursts, but handled the potentially awkward relationship with Michael Owen well, bringing out goals and leadership.

His problem has always been with dealing with a downturn. The fixtures have been unkind, with those two heavyweights to face in what is an unusually brief opening before the international break. But if he can avoid or dismiss any sense of early-season crisis - say by beating Bolton and avoiding humiliation at Old Trafford and the Emirates - then there is enough quality to challenge all but the best of the mid-table sides.

The glory days on a nationwide scale will be as elusive as ever - but at the very least Newcastle should be north-east champions again and by a much bigger margin. Fifty points achieved in as attractive a manner as possible won't be riches but would be a step in the right direction.