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Guide To The Relegation Strugglers Part 1
The gap between the good and the bloody awful has been pretty stark so far this season, so just for a change we're going to focus on the latter. So this way for assessments of the strugglers' survival hopes...
Middlesbrough
Recent Form: While the handful of hardy souls who turn up at the Riverside every other week have largely had to sit through 90 minutes of soul-crushing torpor, Boro have actually been in decent nick. They've lost twice in 2008, and they were both on Merseyside. No disgrace there. And with Tuncay impressing, Alves on his way and even Jeremie Aliadiere not looking that terrible, they're even starting to threaten up top. Who knew?
Upcoming Games: It's a mixture of gimmes and no-hopers for Boro. Home bankers against Derby and Reading are split by trips to Villa, Chelsea and Arsenal, but even half-competent home form will probably do.
Why They Will Go Down: They won't. The only fear is if their forwards revert to type and stop scoring, but even then their defence (third best in the bottom half) should see them through.
Why They Won't Go Down: While Boro are a deeply average side, being average should be enough for any team this season. In a division where the divide between good and bloody awful is so stark, Boro should survive by virtue of being the least terrible of the latter group.
Odds To Go Down: 12/1.
Newcastle
Recent Form: Absolutely bloody rancid. Newcastle haven't won in ten (the last three points came from an injury-time penalty against Fulham), and only Reading currently keep them off the bottom of the form table. To put things in perspective, they have an identical record to Derby over the past eight games.
Upcoming Games: This is where things get really scary for Kevin Keegan. Blackburn are next up at home, then it's a trip to Anfield, then Birmingham. The only game coming up that they will be absolutely confident of winning is at home to Reading at the start of April. Will it be too late by then?
Why They Will Go Down: They're dropping like a stone. While most sides around them strengthened in January, Keegan spent nothing, and the stale but potentially-talented squad left behind by Sam Allardyce just isn't peforming.
Why They Won't Go Down: Newcastle may get away with it because there will probably be three other teams worse than them. Also, while it's a well-worn line to say they're too good to go down, a team with Michael Owen, Mark Viduka, Charles N'Zogbia, James Milner, Nicky Butt and Obafemi Martins should have enough to survive. Emphasis on 'should'.
Odds To Go Down: 11/2.
Wigan
Recent Form: Not too bad. They've won two of the last three, including a decent three points against West Ham at the start of February. Their trouble is that they don't draw many games - just one in the last eight. The standard in the bottom half has been poor enough to assume that less than the usual 40 points will be enough for survival this season, so at this stage even single points are godsends for strugglers.
Upcoming Games: Tough. Manchester City away is next up, then Arsenal visit the JJB, then a massive six-pointer against Bolton. The up side for Steve Bruce is that they play three of their immediate rivals at home before the end of the season, so will be confident of taking enough points to be okay.
Why They Will Go Down: The reliance on home form is a worry. If that slips - especially against their competitors - then they will have to improve on the single win away from the JJB (against Derby) to be secure. Also, they should fear a repeat of their woeful run in the autumn, when they went 13 games without a win, losing ten.
Why They Won't Go Down: In short, Steve Bruce. The man with the squashed nose has been in charge for 13 of Wigan's 27 games this season, games which account for 18 of their 26 points. It's crude and inexact logic, but going on those figures they would be in 11th and kicking back with a cigar on if he'd been in charge since day one.
Odds To Go Down: 11/4.
Sunderland
Recent Form: Schizophrenic. At home they're pretty formidable - only one loss since September, and that was to Manchester United, and they sit in an impressive eighth spot in the 'home' league table. However, away from the Stadium of Light they're putrid. They've picked up a frankly pathetic two points on the road (draws against Boro and Birmingham in the autumn), making them even worse than Derby, who have scraped together three.
Upcoming Games: Form could be reversed over the next couple of weeks. Derby at Pride Park is next for Royston Keane's men, and if they can't win there, then alarm bells should ring. Bloody loud. After that it's Everton then Chelsea at home, games from which they will probably be delighted with two points. Looking ahead, the Tyne-Wear derby in April should be a humdinger.
Why They Will Go Down: It's that away form. No wins before March is terrible, although a small caveat to that is that they haven't played Derby, Fulham or Bolton away just yet, so they still have time to recover. However, if they don't, then they're in some bother, especially when Chelsea, Arsenal, Everton and Man Citeh have yet to visit.
Why They Won't Go Down: Apart from fortress Stadium of Light, you get the feeling that Keane could bully results out of them when it matters. A reasonable run-in featuring games against Fulham, Newcastle and Middlesbrough may mean they're safe before the final-day visit of Arsenal.
Odds To Go Down: 7/2.
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