Odds on Championship: 5,000-1. Odds on relegation: 4-9.
Manager: Tony Pulis (Since June 2006). Odds to be first boss out of a job: 7-1
Last season: 2rd in Championship, 79 points; FA Cup third round; Carling Cup first round

Ins: Dave Kitson (Reading, £5.5m), Seyi Olofinjana (Wolves, £3m), Thomas Sorensen (from out of contract; released by Aston Villa).

Outs: Marlon Broomes (Blackpool, free).

Millwall are safely in League One, but their anthem should perhaps have found a new home. No-one likes Stoke, but right now they don't care. Winning ugly can be enough sometimes - at least in the Championship.

Few would express confidence in the same style working in the top flight. August could be worse: away games at Bolton and Middlesbrough, sandwiching the visit of Aston Villa. But September features matches against three of last season's top five, with Everton and Chelsea coming to the Britannia and City travelling to Liverpool. Work out how many points you reckon Stoke will have at the end of those first six games. Remember that Derby achieved their sole win of last season in early September. And calculate the odds on Stoke having fewer points six games in than County did.

It's not all gloom. Tony Pulis has taken what may become a traditional vow for promoted managers: to outperform the 2007-08 Rams. Along with the form of Hull, Liam Lawrence will be key to their chances of avoiding replacing the Rams in that oath. They need a strong midfield, to relieve the pressure on the defence, and he scores a few, too.

Like Hull, Stoke benefited from a Manchester United loanee, in this case Ryan Shawcross. But unlike with Fraizer Campbell a permanent deal was struck. Seven goals from centre-back was another significant contribution.

Neither Ricardo Fuller nor Richard Cresswell strike me as a top-flight forward; Fuller's previous record, one goal in 31 games at Portsmouth, says as much. However, Dave Kitson looks more the part. If he can recapture his best Reading form then Stoke could have a better striker than any of their rivals for survival.

There was a sense of progress under Pulis, too. He stabilised the club in his first spell and - after the Icelandic owners' interlude with Dutchman Johan Boskamp - carried on where he left off, despite a certain reluctance among fans to welcome him back.

Still, 79 points is a play-off total most years. Had Watford or Bristol City maintained form when well placed, then Stoke would have been back in the mix and that is probably how they should be ranked: as a play-off team. There is noticeably little to choose between them and Hull at the bookies.

The attempt to sign Jamaican Rudolph Austin, stymied by work-permit problems, is a reminder that aside from Kitson, Pulis looks to have a side to challenge in the Championship, rather than one to make an impact in the top flight. The bid shows Pulis's flexibility, but it would be quite some step from the Jamaican League to the Premier League just like that. Seyi Olofinjana has come from Wolves, but at 28 he seems old to be making the step up to the Premier League.

Although Sheffield United were relegated, Neil Warnock's team did prove wrong those who wrote off their chances, by hanging on in there all the way to the end. I suppose Stoke could do the same. But their style, their squad and their record suggest a swift and possibly painful return. Lawrence was at Sunderland, when they set the record Derby eclipsed...